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UNICEF Innocenti
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Giovanni Andrea Cornia

Former Chief of Unit (Former title)

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This paper aims to document the likely direct and indirect impacts of the COVID-19 crisis in developed and developing countries. It also aims to identify potential urgent measures to alleviate such impacts on children. Thirty-three years after the UNICEF report, 'Adjustment with a Human Face', the authors warn of the effects of the pandemic which are likely to be considerable and comparable to the recession and debt crisis of the 1980s. The heavy costs for children can only be avoided with systematic and concerted efforts on the part of governments and the international community, to provide extensive financial and social support for the poor, and to invest in the health and education systems, in order to offset the negative impact of the virus-induced recession.


Giovanni Andrea Cornia; Richard Jolly; Frances Stewart

This study presents an econometric model to estimate changes in the under-five mortality rate in a number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa over the years 1995-2007. The discussion centres on models with different specifications, and on the results obtained after testing several of them. The paper argues that initial models adopted to forecast the potential impact of the food and financial crisis overestimated the increase in mortality. However, the more complex tool presented in this study proves that under-five mortality rates have indeed increased (or declined less than predicted) due to the food and financial crises. The estimates provide signposts for remedies to protect children and their families when new shocks arrive.


Giovanni Andrea Cornia; Stefano Rosignoli; Luca Tiberti