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Luca Tiberti

Former Consultant (Former title)

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This study presents an econometric model to estimate changes in the under-five mortality rate in a number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa over the years 1995-2007. The discussion centres on models with different specifications, and on the results obtained after testing several of them. The paper argues that initial models adopted to forecast the potential impact of the food and financial crisis overestimated the increase in mortality. However, the more complex tool presented in this study proves that under-five mortality rates have indeed increased (or declined less than predicted) due to the food and financial crises. The estimates provide signposts for remedies to protect children and their families when new shocks arrive.


Giovanni Andrea Cornia; Stefano Rosignoli; Luca Tiberti

Burkina Faso’s hard earned economic gains in recent years have been eroded by the 2008-09 world financial and economic crisis. The country will particularly feel the effects of this crisis due to its close links with the world economy. Most of the adverse effects are transmitted to households and then passed onto children. The situation of children principally depends on the monetary and non-monetary wellbeing of their household. This, together with their greater vulnerability, means that children are at risk of suffering more, and for longer, from the impacts of the crisis. It is therefore crucial to understand and anticipate the effects that the crisis may have on children in Burkina Faso and to propose options for social protection to counter these effects.


Lacina Balma; John Cockburn; Ismaël Fofana; Samuel Kaboré; Luca Tiberti