Logo UNICEF Innocenti
Office of Research-Innocenti
menu icon

Profiles

Sudhanshu Handa

Former Chief of Unit (Former title)

Publications

Cash Transfers and Child Nutrition in Zambia
Publication

Cash Transfers and Child Nutrition in Zambia

We examine the effect of the Zambia Child Grant Programme – an unconditional cash transfer (CT) targeted to rural families with children under age five – on height-for-age four years after programme initiation. The CT scheme had large positive effects on several nutritional inputs including food expenditure and meal frequency. However, there was no effect on height-for-age. Production function estimates indicate that food carries little weight in the production of child height. Health knowledge of mothers and health infrastructure in the study sites are also very poor. These factors plus the harsh disease environment are too onerous to be overcome by the increases in food intake generated by the CT. In such settings, a stand-alone CT, even when it has large positive effects on food security, is unlikely to have an impact on long-term chronic malnutrition unless accompanied by complementary interventions.
Children of Austerity: Impact of the Great Recession on Child Poverty in Rich Countries
Publication

Children of Austerity: Impact of the Great Recession on Child Poverty in Rich Countries

The 2008 financial crisis triggered the worst global recession since the Great Depression. Many OECD countries responded to the crisis by reducing social spending. Through 11 diverse country case studies (Belgium, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, and the United States), this volume describes the evolution of child poverty and material well-being during the crisis, and links these outcomes with the responses by governments. The analysis underlines that countries with fragmented social protection systems were less able to protect the incomes of households with children at the time when unemployment soared. In contrast, countries with more comprehensive social protection cushioned the impact of the crisis on households with children, especially if they had implemented fiscal stimulus packages at the onset of the crisis. Although the macroeconomic 'shock' itself and the starting positions differed greatly across countries, while the responses by governments covered a very wide range of policy levers and varied with their circumstances, cuts in social spending and tax increases often played a major role in the impact that the crisis had on the living standards of families and children.
Prevalence and Correlates of Food Insecurity among Children across the Globe
Publication

Prevalence and Correlates of Food Insecurity among Children across the Globe

Target 2.1 of the Sustainable Development Goals calls for an end to hunger, in all its forms, by 2030. Measuring food security among children under age 5, who represent a quarter of the world’s population, remains a challenge that is largely unfeasible for current global monitoring systems. The SDG framework has agreed to use the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) to measure moderate and severe food insecurity. The FIES is an experience-based metric that reports food-related behaviours on the inability to access food due to resource constraints. We present the first global estimates of the share and number of children below age 15, who live with a respondent who is food insecure.
Myth-busting? Confronting Six Common Perceptions about Unconditional Cash Transfers as a Poverty Reduction Strategy in Africa
Publication

Myth-busting? Confronting Six Common Perceptions about Unconditional Cash Transfers as a Poverty Reduction Strategy in Africa

In this paper we summarize evidence on six perceptions associated with cash transfer programming, using eight rigorous evaluations conducted on large-scale government unconditional cash transfers in sub-Saharan Africa, under the Transfer Project. Specifically, we investigate if transfers: 1) induce higher spending on alcohol or tobacco; 2) are fully consumed (rather than invested); 3) create dependency (reduce participation in productive activities); 4) increase fertility; 5) lead to negative community-level economic impacts (including price distortion and inflation), and 6) are fiscally unsustainable. We present evidence refuting each claim, leading to the conclusion that these perceptions – insofar as they are utilized in policy debates – undercut potential improvements in well-being and livelihood strengthening among the poor, which these programmes can bring about in sub-Saharan Africa, and globally. We conclude by underscoring outstanding research gaps and policy implications for the continued expansion of unconditional cash transfers in the region and beyond.

Blogs

The Transfer Project Impact Evaluation Methods Workshop
Blog

The Quest for the Missing Counterfactual: Transfer Project Trains African Researchers in Impact Evaluation

How do we know if a programme made a difference? The answer to this question is not as straightforward as it seems, because we never know what would have happened without the programme. This concept is referred to as the ‘missing counterfactual’ (or simply 'the counterfactual' since, by definition, a counterfactual is missing). Impact evaluation is the science of estimating the missing counterfactual; getting it right is the necessary first step in any evidence-based approach to policy design. The science of impact evaluation was the subject of a two-week technical training workshop organized jointly by the Transfer Project and the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) in Nairobi, Kenya from June 24 to July 4 2019. The training attracted 24 participants (15 women) from 22 African countries who were selected by the AERC from over 350 applicants. Participants were primarily university lecturers working in the fields of applied and agricultural economics. The workshop is part of a larger collaboration between the Transfer Project and AERC focused on promoting evidence-informed decision-making in sub-Saharan Africa funded by the Hewlett Foundation. The workshop content was structured around this core question (“How do we know if a programme made a difference?”) and the related fact that unless we can invent a machine to take us back in time, we can never observe the outcomes both with and without the programme. The job of the evaluator is to estimate the “missing counterfactual” using the tools of research design and statistics. 'Greatest Hits' During the first week of training, participants were taught the ‘greatest hits’ of estimating a counterfactual, beginning with randomized designs and followed by non-randomized designs, such as propensity score matching, discontinuity design, instrumental variables, and natural experiments. They also learned how to add ‘design elements’ to strengthen their studies - for example through baselines or repeated follow-up observations - and to estimate sample sizes in both simple and complex sampling scenarios. Theoretical lectures were complemented with hands-on computer-based demonstrations and case studies from Transfer Project impact evaluations in Ghana, Malawi and Zambia. In the second week, participants were given a hypothetical “Request for Proposals” for an impact evaluation and worked in groups to develop a response using the tools they had learned throughout the course. Final presentations included proposal designs for a new impact evaluation of the Ghanaian LEAP cash transfer, an evaluation of the Kenya NICHE programme, and an evaluation of the Government of China/UNICEF joint pilot conditional cash transfer programme for child nutrition. These are all actual programmes undergoing or seeking to undergo an evaluation—implementers should feel free to contact the study teams for their full proposals! Impact Evaluation Training with AERC: Ghana's LEAP Programme Technical Research Proposal from The Transfer Project It was clear the participants had absorbed the course contents when, by the end of the second week, we noticed an increasing number of jokes and statements using evaluation language. Patrice from Congo suggested that we didn’t know if we could replicate the success of the course again because he and the other participants were “self-selected”; Isabelle from Cote d’Ivoire suggested we use ‘exact matching’ to figure out who should stand next to whom for the group photo; and everyone supported the idea that the order of group presentations should be randomly assigned... If nothing else, at least we have increased the number of nerdy evaluation jokes that are likely to be cracked across sub-Saharan Africa. In the closing session, Gustavo Angeles from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill told participants that the workshop itself was an intervention, and he was expecting a steep upward slope in the intervention group relative to the counterfactual. AERC Executive Director Dr. Njuguna Ndung’u encouraged participants to make the most of the training by using impact evaluation techniques to make a difference in their home countries. While increasingly used to inform policymakers on the effects of policies, impact evaluation methods are not always included in curricula of undergraduate economics degrees, and even when they are, the focus is merely theoretical with few methods covered. There is increasing demand for comprehensive courses on impact evaluation methods, which has led to the proliferation of several intensive workshops worldwide. In developing countries, however, the supply of such courses has not yet met the demand. The Transfer Project is beginning to close this gap with its capacity building work, but it is clear from the large number of applications for this training that there is a large appetite in the region for more information on this technical topic.   Assess your own knowledge of impact evaluation techniques—take our ‘Who Wants to be a Millionaire?’ quiz and see whether you would benefit from this course! Ashu Handa, University of North Carolina: Ashu is Lawrence I. Gilbert Distinguished Professor in UNC’s Department of Public Policy. Elsa Valli, UNICEF Innocenti: Elsa is a Research Analyst with UNICEF’s Office of Research - Innocenti in Florence. Gustavo Angeles, University of North Carolina: Gustavo is the Senior Evaluation Advisor for MEASURE Evaluation & Associate Professor at UNC. All three authors contribute to the work of the Transfer Project research and learning collaborative.
Impact evaluations reap long term benefits for children
Blog

Impact evaluations reap long term benefits for children

We have an obligation to invest where it makes the most difference for children. But how do we decide what will reap the greatest benefits in the long term? The dilemma of whether to invest in services that provide immediate benefits, or in evidence generating initiatives for the long term, is a difficult one. The answer requires a careful analysis of the cost of not addressing immediate needs versus the potential future benefits of policy and budgetary change brought about by research and advocacy. As countries climb up the GDP ladder, UNICEF’s assistance is less critical for basic service delivery. Increasingly, what decision makers from low and middle income countries seek is knowledge and evidence for the design of their own programmes and policies. Investment in sound data, research, and evaluation is an essential component of guiding important decisions for years – and perhaps generations – to come. The Impact Evaluation Series of methodological briefs and instructional videos just released by the UNICEF Office of Research – Innocenti, is a contribution to building a “culture of research” at UNICEF and strengthening our capacity to provide evidence-based advice to partners. The series covers a range of impact evaluation designs and methods, including randomized controlled trials (RCTs). It discusses their pros and cons, ethical concerns and practical issues. The series is primarily aimed at UNICEF programme staff but is also available to the public. How often do we in UNICEF conduct rigorous impact evaluations and invest in evidence for the long term? What are some of the benefits when we do? The Transfer Project is an example of how UNICEF’s investment in research contributes to evidence-based advice which motivates and empowers governments to effectively support children. This multi-country project runs experimental and quasi-experimental impact evaluations in sub-Saharan Africa, repeatedly providing evidence to governments about the positive effects of social cash transfers on children and their families. The methodological design of choice is RCT, often considered the ‘gold standard’ of impact evaluation. It provides powerful responses to questions of causality by proving that an impact is achieved as a result of a specific intervention (e.g. the cash transfer) and nothing else. In Zambia for example, an RCT conducted in three districts from 2010 to 2013 showed that the government’s cash transfer programme led to a wide range of health and nutrition benefits. It also contributed to an increase in productive activity, and ownership of livestock. Encouraged by this evidence, the Government of Zambia boosted its budget allocation for the transfer programme from US$3.5 million in 2013 to 30 million in 2014, with larger amounts expected in the coming years as the programme expands. The overall cost of the evaluation of US$5m will ultimately leverage US$150m for children over the next five years. Similarly in Kenya, the evaluation of the government’s cash transfer for orphans and vulnerable children programme showed impacts on consumption, diet diversity and secondary school enrolment. It was an important part of the dialogue on the scale-up of the programme which now reaches over 160,000 families. The government’s own contribution to the program increased from less than US$1m in 2006 to US$12.5m in 2013. The evaluation itself cost US$2m and leveraged an increase in US$10m from the treasury for the programme, securing benefits for children for years to come. RCTs can be costly. They require a large sample size and cannot be undertaken retrospectively. The random assignment they require can sometimes be perceived as unethical or politically sensitive and in such cases other options, such as quasi-, or non-experimental designs for evaluating impact need to be considered. The new Impact Evaluation Series briefs outline different options for conducting an impact evaluation, are written in accessible language, and use examples from UNICEF’s own work. They are accompanied by animated videos particularly useful to impact evaluation novices or for training purposes. The overarching aim of these tools is to contribute to building UNICEF’s capacity in research and evaluation, improving our ability to provide evidence-based, strategic guidance on children for the long term. The materials were written by international evaluation experts from RMIT University, BetterEvaluation and the International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie). An advisory board comprised of UNICEF staff from the Evaluation Office, Data & Analytics section, the Programme Division and many Country and Regional Office guided the quality and relevance of the work. We hope that the materials will contribute to more UNICEF-supported, high-quality impact evaluations, and to more evidence-based decision-making by our partners. Sudhanshu (Ashu) Handa is Chief of Social Policy & Economic Analysis, at UNICEF’s Office of Research – Innocenti and a Principal Investigator on the Transfer Project. Nikola Balvin is Knowledge Management Specialist at the Office of Research – Innocenti and was responsible for coordinating the Impact Evaluation Series.

Journal articles

Impact evaluations reap long term benefits for children
Journal Article

More Evidence on the Impact of Government Social Protection in Sub Saharan Africa: Ghana, Malawi and Zimbabwe

Impact evaluations reap long term benefits for children
Journal Article

Cash Transfers, Early Marriage, and Fertility in Malawi and Zambia

Impact evaluations reap long term benefits for children
Journal Article

More evidence on the relationship between cash transfers and child height

Impact evaluations reap long term benefits for children
Journal Article

Beyond internal validity: Towards a broader understanding of credibility in development policy research