Publications

This paper examines poverty in recent years among children in the countries of South Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The indicator used to measure poverty is found to be robust to sensitivity testing, and to correlate well with non-income indicators of well-being among children. The absolute poverty rate among children is highest where national income is lowest, and where the density of children in the population is highest. The paper analyses two dimensions of child poverty - according to household composition, and according to its urban, rural and regional dimensions. The most important findings from a policy point of view are the strong rural character of child poverty, and the relationship between child population density (at the level of the country, the sub-national region, and the household) and child poverty: where child population shares are higher, child poverty rates are also higher. This relationship, moreover, may have strengthened over time. Child population density needs to be seen more as a trigger to redistribution.

Social Monitor 2003 reviews recent socio-economic trends in the 27 countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States. It contains six articles: Economic Growth, Poverty and Long-Term Disadvantage examines recent trends in national income, poverty and public expenditure. Debt Service: An Emerging Problem looks at the growth of external debt in the poorest countries in the region. Refugees and Displaced Persons: Still Large Numbers reviews trends in the numbers of refugees and displaced persons and their living conditions. Intercountry Adoption: Trends and Consequences analyses factors behind the increasing number of children who are internationally adopted from the region. Confronting HIV? considers recent developments in HIV/AIDS in the region and the care and treatment of people with HIV/AIDS. The special feature article, Counting Infant Mortality and Accounting for It, draws on recent survey data to question official infant mortality rates in several countries in the region. It also seeks to explain factors associated with high infant mortality rates in these countries. In addition, the Statistical Annex covers a broad range of indicators for the years 1989 to 2000-2002, including population trends, births and fertility, mortality, family formation, health, education, child protection, crime, and income, as well as comprehensive statistical profiles on each country in the region.

Social Monitor 2003 reviews recent socio-economic trends in the 27 countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States. It contains six articles: Economic Growth, Poverty and Long-Term Disadvantage examines recent trends in national income, poverty and public expenditure. Debt Service: An Emerging Problem looks at the growth of external debt in the poorest countries in the region. Refugees and Displaced Persons: Still Large Numbers reviews trends in the numbers of refugees and displaced persons and their living conditions. Intercountry Adoption: Trends and Consequences analyses factors behind the increasing number of children who are internationally adopted from the region. Confronting HIV? Considers recent developments in HIV/AIDS in the region and the care and treatment of people with HIV/AIDS. The special feature article, Counting Infant Mortality and Accounting for It, draws on recent survey data to question official infant mortality rates in several countries in the region. It also seeks to explain factors associated with high infant mortality rates in these countries.

A combination of economic growth and committed revenue-raising should give most governments in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union considerable scope to devote increased resources to tackling poverty. We review the extent and nature of poverty across the transition countries, emphasising the phenomenon of the working-age poor. We consider governments' fiscal positions and revenue raising tools, including the issue of whether some countries now have levels of external debt servicing that are so high as to hamper social sector expenditures. We analyse whether the introduction of credible unemployment benefit schemes in the CIS would aid labour market reform and hence help solve the problem there of in-work poverty (we first review experience in Central and Eastern Europe). We focus on the case of Russia, and simulate a simple scheme with 2000 household survey data. The paper concludes by considering the role of improved wages for public service workers and the targeting of categorical benefits.

Социальный мониторинг, 2002 год содержит обзор социально экономических тенденций в 27 странах Центральной и Восточной Европы, а также Содружества Независимых Государств. Доклад состоит из трех статей: "Социальные тенденции в переходный период” – дается обнов ленный анализ положения в ряде областей, включая доходы и бед ность, рождаемость и смертность (в том числе младенческую), охват образованием и попечение о детях, относящихся к группе риска. “ВИЧ/СПИД и молодежь: осведомленность, поведение и поли тика” – анализируются характер распространения ВИЧ и осве домленность молодежи о предохранении от ВИЧ*инфекции. «Качество обучения – к “одностороннему разоружению в обла сти образования”?» – рассматриваются новые данные о качест ве обучения и усвоения знаний в странах переходного периода в сравнении со странами Запада.

This paper examines the impact of the Asian crisis on children in Indonesia. School attendance dropped slightly after the onset of the crisis but has since rebounded to higher than pre-crisis levels. Fewer children are now working, although the older children who are working and are not attending school seem to be working longer hours. Several studies have examined the social impacts of the crisis. The findings can largely be summarized as showing that rather than being uniformly negative and severe, the crisis impact has been quite heterogeneous, depending on geographic location and household socio-economic status. Overwhelmingly, households have been shown to be very resilient in the face of hardship.

This paper uses regression and matching techniques to evaluate Indonesia’s Social Safety Net Scholarships Programme. The scholarships programme was developed to try to prevent large numbers of children from dropping out of school as a result of the Asian crisis. The expectation was that many families would find it difficult to keep their children in school and drop out rates would be high as they were during the 1980's recession. Drop-outs, however, have not increased markedly and enrolment rates have remained relatively steady. This paper examines the role played by the scholarship programme in producing this result.

The MONEE project Regional Monitoring Report of the UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre is a unique source of information on the social side of the transition taking place in the 27 countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Each year’s Report contains an update on the social and economic changes affecting people in the region and includes a wealth of data in a detailed Statistical Annex. The present Report provides a review of the first 10 years of transition, exploiting the fact that data are now available on many issues that cover the entire 1990s. The core chapters examine the record of the decade in four key areas affecting human welfare: income inequality and child poverty, health, education, and child protection. An introductory chapter analyses key economic and demographic trends. In each case, the Report summarizes developments to the end of the decade, discussing both the outcomes measured with statistical data and the policy options.

The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 paved the way for changes in every aspect of life in this region. New opportunities and new risks emerged for all members of society. The main drive for change has been bold economic and political reform - the transition from planned systems to market economies and from authoritarian regimes to more participatory societies. But the 1990s also saw a broader, worldwide transition: a change in thinking about what constitutes social progress. The 1990s represent only the first period in a continuing process of economic and social change. Nevertheless, a decade is sufficient time to see the main trends clearly and to identify both the advances and the setbacks that the transition has entailed for different aspects of human welfare, together with the possibilities for progress in the future.