Publications

This report outlines the polycrisis in which the world finds itself — multiple, simultaneous shocks with strong interdependencies, intensified in an ever-more integrated world — along with eight trends that will shape child rights and well-being in the coming year. The trends explored are: 

 

1. The pandemic's harms will continue to be counted - but reforms of health architecture and medical breakthroughs offer hope for children.
2. Efforts to tame inflation will have unintended negative effects on child poverty and well-being - requiring policy measures that protect investments for vulnerable families and children.
3. Multiple factors will contribute to continued food and nutrition insecurity - with increasing calls for greater climate adaptation and food systems reform to prevent food poverty in children.
4. The worsening energy crisis may cause immediate harm to children - but the focus on energy sustainability provides hope for a greener future.
5. Unmet needs and underinvestment in children warrant reforms of financial flows to developing countries - while renewed attention on climate finance and debt relief holds promise.
6. Threats to democratic rights such as freedom of expression are expected to continue - but social movements, including those led by young people and women, are likely to push back.
7. Increasing factionalism will put further stress on multilateralism - but efforts to address children's and young people's concerns may offer opportunities to find common ground.
8. The internet will continue to fragment and become less global, resulting in further disparities for children - prompting a greater push for openness, fairness and inclusion.

 

The COVID-19 pandemic that swept over the world from early 2020 has triggered both health and economic shocks of unprecedented proportions in recent memory. Some estimates suggest that the consequences of these shocks will likely erase most of the progress made in global development over the past two decades. Many countries now risk falling further behind the attainment of national and international development goals, including the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. Children are particularly vulnerable to the effects of these shocks due to their persistent higher levels of vulnerability, and the reality that school closures and other COVID-19 containment measures can be more damaging to children. 

This report examines the effect of previous economic crises on children’s well-being in UNICEF’s West and Central Africa Region (WCAR) and makes projections regarding the potential impacts of COVID-19-induced economic crises on priority indicators for the region. 

COVID-19 constitutes the greatest crisis that high-income countries have seen in many generations. While many high-income countries experienced the global financial crisis of 2007–2008, or have had national recessions, the COVID-19 pandemic is much more than that. COVID-19 is a social and economic crisis, sparked by a protracted health crisis.

High-income countries have very limited experience of dealing with health crises, having their health and human services stretched beyond capacity, restricting the travel of their populations or having to close workplaces and schools – let alone experience of all of these things combined. These unique conditions create new and serious challenges for the economies and societies of all high-income countries. As these challenges evolve, children – as dependants – are among those at greatest risk of seeing their living standards fall and their personal well-being decline.

This new UNICEF Innocenti report explores how the social and economic impact of the pandemic is likely to affect children; the initial government responses to the crisis; and how future public policies could be optimized to better support children. 

Before the recent economic crisis, Hungary and Iceland were considered to be two excellent models of development. Hungary and Iceland were among the countries affected earliest and most by the recent macroeconomic shock, suffering a similar drop in GDP.While the Hungarian government implemented a flat tax reform in order to stimulate economic activity, the Icelandic government replaced its flat tax system with a progressive one increasing the participation of high income groups in the adjustment process. The aim of this paper is to compare the opposite adjustment paths followed by Hungary and Iceland on selected outcomes.